Methodology
How MSRI turns evidence into a score, and the limits on how that score may be used. Weights, bands, and thresholds on this page come straight from the scoring code.
Five dimensions, fourteen indicators
Each indicator is scored from 0 to 100. Indicators average into a dimension score, and dimensions combine by weight into the composite. All indicators are expressed as risk, so a higher number always means more risk. The one indicator measured as capacity (survivor referral access) contributes 100 minus its value.
Governance & rule of law
Weight 25%The primary structural enabler. Whether weak or selective governance lets compounds operate with impunity: special economic zone oversight gaps, armed or elite control of territory, and gray-market finance history.
- SEZ oversight gap
- Armed / elite control
- Gray-market finance history
Labor & migration
Weight 25%Where trafficking risk enters the index. Conditions that feed forced recruitment and block escape: irregular migration inflows, active recruitment pipelines, and lack of worker grievance access.
- Irregular migration inflow
- Recruitment pipeline activity
- Worker grievance access
Financial flows
Weight 20%The financial infrastructure that sustains compounds and launders proceeds: cross-border micro-transactions, shell company density, and crypto on-ramp exposure.
- Cross-border micro-transaction volume
- Shell company / nominee density
- Crypto on-ramp exposure
Digital platform
Weight 15%Scam-linked online activity originating from or routed through the location: scam IP and domain density, and platform enforcement actions.
- Scam IP / domain density
- Platform enforcement actions
Protection capacity
Weight 15%Whether survivors can get help without being treated as criminals: referral network access, non-criminalizing enforcement, and whether past crackdowns displaced compounds rather than dismantling them. Stronger protection lowers the composite score.
- Survivor referral network access · inverted
- Non-criminalizing enforcement
- Displacement-safe response
MSRI = Governance × 0.25 + Labor × 0.25 + Financial × 0.2 + Digital × 0.15 + Protection gap × 0.15
Weights reflect the paper's rationale: governance failure and labor vulnerability are preconditions, so they carry the most weight. Partners can explore other weightings; the default stays the reference.
Risk levels
The composite measures how strongly the conditions that let compounds take root, scale, and persist are present. It is not the certainty that a compound exists.
Confidence and uncertainty
Every score is shown with an uncertainty band: a structured acknowledgment of data quality, not a statistical confidence interval. Each dimension's confidence sets its band, and the bands combine by weight.
Operational rule: a location with two or more low-confidence dimensions is flagged. Its score must not be used for operational decisions without field verification.
Confidence is derived from the evidence, not set by hand. Each source starts at its tier: UN bodies, governments, and courts are high; established NGOs and investigative outlets are medium; a single media report or unverified claim is low. Evidence more than 12 months old drops one level, and anything over 24 months is low. When two or more independent publishers back an indicator, it rises one level. A dimension takes the lowest confidence among its indicators.
Missing data
Many places have little reliable evidence, and a gap is a finding in itself. MSRI never fills a gap with national averages or estimates: country context stays separate from location scores.
- A dimension counts toward the composite only when at least half its indicators have evidence. Below that it's shown as insufficient.
- Weight from missing or insufficient dimensions is shared among the rest, and the gap is shown alongside the score.
- If the dimensions with data carry less than 70% of the weight, no composite is shown, only “insufficient data.”